The assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and rising tensions in the Middle East

The situation in the Middle East - Khamenei assasination

Tensions have been mounting in the Middle East amidst conflict between Iran, Israel, the US, Dubai and other countries. This was triggered by the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which had occurred in late February as part of a joint Israeli-US military operation [1] [2]. The incident comes after the 12-day Iran-Israeli war in June 2025 and Iran’s recent protests ending January 2026, further plunging the country into economic and political disarray [3] [4].

The situation in the Middle East - Iranian response

In response to the Khamenei execution, Iran launched missiles and drones on several US allies in the Middle East, including but not limited to Dubai, Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan [2] [5]. This has primarily targetted US military bases in the various nations, although there are concerns that the attacks are extending to public infrastructure such as airports or energy facilities in Qatar, Abu Dhabi, Dubai and more [6].

The reason that Iran is targeting these Middle Eastern nations is speculated as a means of fostering distaste towards the US for starting the conflict [7]. It may also serve as an indirect attack on the US through impacting their US military bases, in order to retaliate against them for targeting Iran’s Supreme Leader [7]. The US bases in the Gulf are in closer proximity to Iran, making it easier to do so [7]. This could lead to Gulf nations joining the conflict, or urging the US, Israel and Iran to reach a solution [7]. The UK, Germany and France have also voiced an opinion by condoning Iran’s regional attacks, particularly in involving US allies unrelated to the cause [8]. They have further vowed to cooperate with the US and regional allies to put an end to the conflict [8]. The trio are urging Iran to enter into diplomatic dialogue with Israel and the US, to reach a solution to the conflict [9]. Without doing so, a prolonged war could break out [10].

What caused this

Although this may have been unexpected to some, the Khamenei assassination has been years in the making. This had been plotted by Israel for some time, by reason of disliking Khamenei’s support of Hamas and Hezbollah (Palestinian and Lebanese terrorist organisations) [3]. Moreover, tensions had been brewing between the US since a failed 2015 nuclear deal, with President Trump citing national security concerns and ending the Khamenei regime for staging the operation [3]. As a result, Trump had been engaged in official talks with Iran regarding their nuclear weaponry [2]. However, insufficient progress purportedly motivated the US to strike Iran [2]. Combining US and Israeli intelligence forces, the two nations had gathered information on Khamenei in preparation to launch an attack [1].

Will there be a change in the Khamenei regime - next steps for Iran

There is unlikely to be regime change.

Despite President Trump’s strong suggestions for Iranian citizens to “take over your (their) government”, there is no indication that Iranians or senior officials are advocating for change [11]. It is unlikely that there will be any significant regime change from Khamenei's rulership [11]. Currently, an interim leadership has taken power, consisting of Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian, the head of the judiciary Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei and head of the Basij (a paramilitary group) Alireza Arafi [12]. The next Supreme Leader is yet to be chosen, but Reza Pahlavi (the son of the previous shah of Iran) has been put forth as a contender [11].

Commercial implications of Middle East conflict

There are several commercial implications for businesses and individuals, rooted in the Middle East’s reputation for harbouring the most oil-rich nations in the world. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, to which approximately 20% of the global supply of oil and gas is transported through [13]. This shortage has led to oil prices rising, which impacts a large number of companies that use the product for transportation or manufacturing-purposes [13]. Since the beginning of the joint US-Israeli strikes, crude oil prices have risen by around 50% [14]. Oil prices of Brent crude (the international benchmark) have surpassed over $100 a barrel, even reaching $110 per barrel, which are record levels that have not been reached since July 2022 (after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) [14] [15]. This could increase the cost of food, energy, and gas for individuals, which all require large inputs of oil. Thus, resulting in inflation in a large number of countries [13]. Moreover, other businesses wishing to trade via the Strait of Hormuz route are being obstructed by the Iran-US/Israeli conflict. For instance, thousands of exports from the New Zealand shipping company Kotahi, which were headed to the Middle East, have been suspended [16].

Conclusion

To conclude, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei sparked heightened geopolitical tension within the Middle East, resulting in retaliatory airstrikes and international scrutiny. World leaders remain divided, with some emphasising diplomatic resolution and others prioritising national security. European nations have called for de-escalation, which I view as the most optimal solution to the conflict. Despite the conflict being in its early stages, it has already caused regional instability, disrupted trade routes, and will likely increase the costs of various goods worldwide (especially oil). Ongoing conflict will impact regional security, global markets and supply chains. Therefore, peaceful resolution is in the best interests of nations worldwide.

Bibliography

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Image Credits

khamenei.ir on Wikimedia Commons <https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ali_Khamenei_delivers_Nowruz_message_03.jpg>